Self Fulfilling Prophecies
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Self-Fulfilling Prophecies 2019

Below are for my reference on tracking of SFP 2019

Prophecies Tracking

PropheciesCauseEffect
Sell off in May 2018No sell offYear 2018 might show weakness in economy and market
Black Friday / Cyber Monday 2018UpMkt. rally if total of both figures better than last year. Else last 5 days of the year + 2 days could be flat or bear. And also indicator for next year performance.
Santa Claus Rally 2018No
First Day Of January 2019Up
First Five Days Of January 2019UpS&P500 has a net positive gain in the first five trading days, there is about an 86% chance that the stock market will rise for the year. If not, then it can be any direction.
January 2019 Barometer
Valentine Day 14th Feb 2019
December Low
Sell off in May 2019
Black Friday / Cyber Monday 2019
Santa Claus Rally 2019

January 2019

  • First Trading Day: 2nd Jan, Wed usually a very bullish day
  • 3-Day Weekend: 21st Jan, Mon Martin Luther King Jr. Day
  • Q4 2018 Earning Season
  • Usually Bullish Month

February 2019

  • First Trading Day: 1st Feb, Fri usually a very bullish day
  • 3-Day Weekend: 18th Feb, Mon Presidents’ Day
  • Usually Bullish Month

March 2019

  • First Trading Day: 1st Mar, Fri usually a very bullish day
  • Window Dressing: last week, normally 3 to 5 days
  • Usually Flat Month

April 2019

  • First Trading Day: 1st Apr, Mon usually a very bullish day
  • Q1 2019 Earning Season
  • Usually The Most Bullish Month

May 2019

  • First Trading Day: 1st May, Wed usually a very bullish day
  • 3-Day Weekend: 27th May, Mon Memorial Day
  • Usually Bearish Month

June 2019

  • First Trading Day: 3rd Jun, Mon usually a very bullish day
  • Portfolio Pumping (During good times): last week, normally 4 to 5 days
  • Index Additions of Russell Small & Mid Caps: 28th Jun, Fri
  • Usually Unpredictable Month

July 2019

  • First Trading Day: 1st July, Mon usually a very bullish day
  • New Year Eve: 4th July, Thurs Independence Day
  • Q2 2019 Earning Season
  • Usually Most Volatile Month

August 2019

  • First Trading Day: 1st Aug, Thu usually a very bullish day
  • Usually Most Bearish Month

September 2019

  • First Trading Day: 3rd Sept, Tues usually a very bullish day
  • New Year Eve: 2nd Sept, Mon Labour Day *3-Day Weekend
  • Window Dressing: Final week, normally 3 to 5 days *
  • Portfolio Dumpling*: when the market is bad
  • Usually Most Bearish Month

October 2019

  • First Trading Day: 1st Oct, Tues usually a very bullish day
  • 3-Day Weekend: 14th Oct, Mon Columbus Day
  • Q3 2019 Earning Season
  • Usually Bearish Month

November 2019

  • First Trading Day: 1st Nov, Fri usually a very bullish day
  • 3-Day Weekend: 11th Nov, Mon Veterans Day
  • New Year Eve: 28th Nov, Thurs Thanksgiving
  • Black Fri/Cyber Mon: 29th Nov, Fri and 2nd Dec
  • Usually Bullish Month

December 2019

  • First Trading Day: 2nd Dec, Mon usually a very bullish day
  • New Year Eve: 25th Dec, Wed Christmas
  • Santa Claus Rally: 3 to 5 days before Xmas to 3 days after New Year
  • Index Additions of Dow, S&P & Nasdaq: last week
  • Usually Bullish Month